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Polymarket’s U.S. Comeback, From Ban to Boom

· 4 min read
Rachana S
Rachana S
Content Creator

After four years of regulatory exile, Polymarket, the blockchain-based prediction market, has officially returned to the United States. Once forced to block American users by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the platform has now secured approval to operate again. Its relaunch has already sparked a wave of trading activity, with users betting on politics, sports, and economics — and making money in the process.

Polymarket’s U.S. Comeback, From Ban to Boom image

What is Polymarket?​

Polymarket is a crypto-powered prediction market where people wager on the outcomes of real-world events. Instead of traditional gambling, it uses event contracts that rise or fall in price depending on the likelihood of an outcome.

  • Blockchain foundation: Built on Ethereum, ensuring transparency and security.
  • Stablecoin transactions: Bets are placed using USDC, avoiding crypto volatility.
  • Crowd-driven forecasting: Market prices reflect collective sentiment, often more accurate than polls.

This model makes Polymarket both a trading platform and a forecasting tool.

The Ban and Its End​

In 2021, the CFTC ruled that Polymarket’s contracts resembled unregistered derivatives, forcing the company to restrict U.S. access.

Fast forward to September 2025: Polymarket received a no-action letter from the CFTC after acquiring QCX LLC and QC Clearing LLC, licensed entities that provide compliance. This regulatory approval ended the four-year ban and reopened the doors for American traders.

Traders Already Profiting​

Since its relaunch, activity has surged:

  • Election markets: Heavy trading on U.S. presidential race outcomes.
  • Sports events: NFL playoffs and global soccer tournaments attract fans.
  • Economic indicators: Inflation, unemployment, and Federal Reserve decisions are popular among finance-savvy users.

The key appeal is liquidity and speed — traders can enter and exit positions instantly, profiting from shifts in public sentiment.

Why Polymarket Matters​

Polymarket’s return is more than just another crypto story:

  • Regulatory milestone: Shows growing acceptance of decentralized platforms.
  • Forecasting power: Market odds often outperform expert predictions.
  • Retail access: Everyday users can speculate on events without Wall Street infrastructure.

Risks and Challenges​

Despite the excitement, risks remain:

  • Regulatory uncertainty: Approval is conditional, not permanent.
  • Market manipulation: Thin liquidity in niche markets can distort prices.
  • Speculative nature: Prediction markets carry high risk and no intrinsic value.

What You Can Trade on Polymarket and How to Begin with USDC

Markets on Polymarket​

Polymarket offers thousands of live markets covering a wide range of topics. Users can place bets on:

  • Politics & Elections – outcomes of major political races and policy decisions.
  • Sports – championship results and match winners.
  • Cryptocurrency – milestones such as Bitcoin hitting $100,000 in 2025.
  • Science & Innovation – breakthroughs and discoveries.
  • Pop Culture – entertainment industry trends and celebrity events.

Recent examples include predictions on Federal Reserve interest rate moves, Bitcoin’s price trajectory, sports tournament champions, and developments in film and music.

Getting Started with USDC​

To trade on Polymarket, participants use USDC (USD Coin), a stablecoin tied to the U.S. dollar. Funding your account is flexible, with several options available:

  • Direct crypto transfers
  • Credit card deposits
  • Exchange transfers
  • PayPal

The platform currently charges no fees on taker orders (when buying shares instantly). However, a small 0.01% fee is planned for maker orders, which apply when users provide liquidity to the U.S. marketplace.

Will Prediction Markets Replace Traditional Forecasting Methods?

The rise of prediction markets such as Polymarket is reshaping how forecasts are discussed in mainstream media and policy circles. Often referred to as the “Polymarket Effect,” this influence highlights the growing role of decentralized platforms in shaping public expectations. CEO Shayne Coplan has described Polymarket as “the most accurate tool out there” for anticipating future outcomes, pointing to strong short-term accuracy rates. Yet, academic research has raised concerns about reliability, noting vulnerabilities such as herd behavior and the potential for market manipulation. These findings suggest that while prediction markets can provide valuable insights, they are not immune to the same biases and distortions that affect traditional forecasting methods.

Concerns about fairness remain, particularly when large traders deploy significant capital to sway outcomes or when some participants benefit from superior analytical tools or insider knowledge. Controversies, such as the 2025 Zelensky suit dispute—where a $237 million market resolved “No” despite clear photographic evidence—underscore the challenges of maintaining credibility. Even so, Polymarket continues to dominate the decentralized prediction space, leading globally in trading volume and market capitalization. With regulatory approval expanding and endorsements from institutions like Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), prediction markets are expected to push further into domains traditionally occupied by polling and expert analysis. As adoption grows, the tension between market-driven forecasts and conventional methods will likely intensify, especially during high-stakes political and economic events where billions of dollars ride on the outcome.